Quiet weather for the next 12-24 hours as a low to the northeast departs the United States, and another low forms around the ARKLATEX.
By early tomorrow afternoon, rain showers will once again ride into the region on a screaming 100mph Jet.

By Saturday evening, most of the rain will have departed the region, but upslope snow showers will affect the western slopes of the Appalachians. (Sorry, no snow around the metro region). This storm is significant in the fact that it will finally break the spell of above average temperatures, allowing a massive Canadian trough to dip into the United States.

Image courtesy of: Accuweather.com

Cold Air Invasion:
As this occurs, the cold air that has managed to build up in Canada will finally be let loose, toppling the mild temperature regime over the entire East Coast. I believe model forecast temperatures (GFSX, which runs off the GFS model runs at 00 and 12z to forecast surface parameters) are too high next week, in the mid 40s. The strength of this incoming trough would suggest high temperatures struggle to make it out of the 30s by midweek.

I have been harping about this "pattern change" for awhile now; since mid January and things are still set for a rather quick return to winter in the coming days.

The image at right is the mean 500mb forecast chart from the GFS long range model, and about 10 other members that are run as an ensemble. These types of models and forecasts generally have better accuracy over longer periods of time because they are each started with slightly different initial parameters, like temp, wind, pressure, etc.