If there is one thing I have learned over the years, it is that computer models do not ever do a good job with clipper systems. In fact, you'll see in my previous entry which came last weekend I talked about how a clipper could give us some snowflakes Friday night- Saturday if everything went as the GFS was showing on that day. But between Sunday and Wednesday, the clipper all but disappeared from the computer models.... until today.

It now looks likely that a clipper will pass through the area just to our south and west. As it does so, it will spread precip into the entire area. The question is, what form will it come in? Unfortunatly, I don't really have an answer. Looking at the conditional probabilities on the NAM and GFS, it could go either way. If I were to had to put something on it, I don't think anyone south and east of DC will see anything in the way of snow, and snow in the district may be a stretch. I do think it is fairly possible that the immediate suburbs of Montgomery, Fairfax, Frederick (etc) could see snow.

It will all come down to a couple of degrees Friday night, so if you are rooting for the first flakes of the year, stay close to a thermometer!

(I'd show you a picture here but there have been some technical difficulties...)