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Friday's severe threat:
A very rigorous storm system has developed over the plains today spawning multiple tornadoes and a number of severe thunderstorms across the area ahead of the dry line in Oklahoma. This storm system will deepen as it moves east over the next couple of days, and does pose the risk for a severe thunderstorm outbreak on Friday.
NWS has gone with a 30% chance for Day 3, which is pretty high for storm outlooks beyond 48 hours.
Computer models are suggesting that EHI values (a measure that can indicate how probable a thunderstorm is of dropping a tornado) will be on the high side (2-3 across the area). The bigger risk, however, will be straight line winds; the cold front will be cruising across the area, and models are indicating that a number of long bow echos may evolve on Friday afternoon as the storm crosses the Apalachians. The one thing I see as a potential inhibbiting factor is the left-over cloud cover from tomorrows storms. We will talk about this more tomorrow.
Sheer is when wind directions at different levels of the atmosphere are moving in different directions. On Friday, winds will be coming out of the southeast at the surface, but out of the northwest aloft--- this will create spin in the atmosphere for supercells and long-lived bow echos
----------------------------------A break from the Dry Pattern?
Yes we are a significant drought- "extreme" in some southwestern suburbs according to the NWS. The question is, are we going to break the dry pattern?
While I do see two good chances of significant rain over the week or so, I do not see a pattern change in near future. Hopefully, we will be able to get 1-3 inches of rain like the GFS indicates over the next week, because I still see strong Bermuda Highs sitting to our east 10+ days from now.
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