A strong front will pass through the area late tonight and spark off some major thunderstorms. EHI values (a measure of the tornadic potential across the area) are expected to be tremendous this afternoon. I would expect a number of lines of thunderstorms with damaging winds, and a couple of isolated tornados this afternoon/evening. The deciding factor in whether or not we will see a major outbreak depends on how much sunlight we see during the day. Sunshine, of course leads to destabilization and enables thunderstorms to reach severe limits. Make sure to check watches/warnings as the day progresses.
Notice the very high EHI values on the top-right map. Isolated tornados are possible this afternoon/evening.
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Tropics:
Erin: Tropical storm Erin will make landfall in southern Texas today with winds of 40-50 mph. The major damage out of Texas will be flooding however.
Dean: Tropical Storm Dean is very close to reaching hurricane status. I would expect the storm to reach hurricane status later today. Recent computer guidence suggests that the storm will travel into the Gulf of Mexico. More to come...
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