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Rain on the Way for DC, Dean to ravage Jamaica

By Lee Carlaw On Saturday, August 18, 2007 At 2:54 PM
Weather over the next several days:
Clear skies dominate over the Mid Atlantic as a ridge of high pressure builds into the region from the northwest. Clouds will, however, begin to increase out of the southwest shortly as a developing storm system slides eastward from the Central Midwest.

Temperatures: The increased cloud cover on Sunday should hold high temperatures in the low to mid 80s, which is at or slightly below average for this time of year.

Precipitation: The chance for a few showers/thundershowers will slowly increase after 7 or 8 PM Sunday evening. It appears, however, that the majority of the rainfall from this system will stay north of the Mason-Dixon line until Monday night. A few numerical weather models depict the possibility of severe thunderstorms moving into the region Tuesday morning and early afternoon. Needless to say, from Monday through Wednesday, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will plague the region, but should significantly cut into the areas rainfall deficit.

Gulf Coast be Warned! Catastrophic hurricane is on the way:
Scalding hot sea surface temperatures, low wind shear, and slow steering currents are all coming together, (or rather, have come together) to form the most intense tropical cyclone this year. Hurricane Dean is currently an upper Category 4 Hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph near his eye.

This tropical monster has already ravaged portions of the Lesser Antilles, and is headed towards the island of Jamaica as a potential Category 5, which would completely devastate the mountainous region. According to Associated Press, NASA has shortened its spacewalk by one day, and will bring the astronauts back on Tuesday to avoid any potentially dangerous ramifications.

Folks anywhere from New Orleans to Tampico in east central Mexico need to prepare for this dangerous storm. While computer models seem to have converged on a general solution for landfall (around Brownsville, Texas plus or minus 150 miles) climatology points towards Dean turning northeast once he enters the Gulf of Mexico--towards Louisiana and New Orleans (CLP-5 model is the National Hurricane Center's climatology model).

This is an extremely powerful and dangerous tropical system. Jamaica will likely suffer from a direct hit from Hurricane Dean's extreme winds, surge, and rainfall. I expect catastrophic damage on the island in 36 to 48 hours.

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