11:30 UPDATE: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR FREDERICK, WASHINGTON, AND CARROL COUNTIES IN MARYLAND. There will be significant wind damage associated with this line of storms as they move across Northern Maryland in the next hour.
10:20 UPDATE: As soon as I finished writing the entry, a watch WAS issued for the area until 4pm. I will be doing updates as this dangerous line of storms moves into the area.
These are the projected times of arrival:
Hagerstown: 11:30am
Frederick: 12:00
Leesburg: 12:15pm
Rockville: 12:30pm
Silver Spring: 1:00pm
Bethesda: 1:00pm
Washington DC: 1:15pm
The NWS has extended the slight risk area for severe storms today to completely encompass the entire DC metro area. A moderate risk has also been discussed for parts of the area. Dangerous winds appear to be the biggest threat, however a tornado is not impossible.
Discussion: A dangerous line of severe storms is progressing through southwestern PA this morning. As this line continues to move east and southeast, it will head into increasingly unstable air (dewpoints are well into the 70s (!) and MLCAPE values on the order of 2500-3000 J/KG), this line will likely strengthen on its southern end as it moves into the region.
I am surprised a watch has not been issued with this line, as there have already been a number of damaging wind reports from interior PA this morning.
After this line goes through, there may be additional storms through the 10pm hour (the line should be out of the area by 5pm or so). Make sure to check radar befor heading out this afternoon... this line is cruising at a clip of 40-50 mph!
A dangerous line of storms will move into the area by the noon-2pm hour.
Additionally, the NWS issued a slight risk for severe storms tomorrow.... this will be a busy couple of days.
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