Rainfall Remains Sparse:
A persistent, cut-off upper level low pressure system continues to spin around over northern Ohio, and deliver showers to the Ohio River valley. The system will, unfortunately, fail to slide far enough to the east to deliver us any appreciable rainfall today or tomorrow. While there is a slight chance that some isolated areas receive rainfall from thunderstorms today, I would strongly bet against any precipitation around the region this afternoon.

A piece of upper level energy is expected to break off the main upper level low complex by Saturday morning, delivering a slightly better chance for some rainfall to the parched metro region. The North American Mesoscale Model (66 hour forecast depicted at right) seems to be over-doing rainfall totals around the Mid Atlantic, indicating one-half to three-quarters of an inch of accumulated precipitation by Monday morning. We will likely see some rainfall by the end of this weekend, but should total less than one half of an inch.

Has it really been an inactive hurricane season?:
Because of the massive increase in the number of tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin over the past few years, this year has, so far, seemed relatively tranquil. However, when compared to the 60-year average, this season is already above normal for the year.

According to the National Hurricane Center, on average, only 1.5 named systems (tropical storms), and fewer than one hurricane develops by the end of July. So far this year, two tropical storms have developed, one of which (Tropical Storm Barry) impacted south central Florida back in the beginning of June.

Currently in the Tropical Atlantic, while Sea Surface Temperatures remain anomalously warm in many areas, the upper level environment remains hostile to any potential development.
Upper level wind shear is high, which significantly inhibits tropical development. Furthermore, large quantities of Saharan dust (which are present in the Atlantic), blown across the Ocean at high altitude have been shown to inhibit the development of potential tropical cyclones.