Cold, Windy, and Still shoveling out:
Even with the region's latest snowstorm long gone (in fact, it's become quite a snowstorm for Nova Scotia and eastern Quebec), bone-chilling weather lingers across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Winds gusting upwards of 30 mph in some locations are creating wind chills in the low to mid teens, with below zero readings in extreme western Maryland and southwestern PA.

Due to the significant amount of sleet and freezing rain that accompanied this week's storm, temperatures in the low to mid 30s and an increasing sun elevation have failed to do much in the way of melting the wintry mess. This has forced many local school systems to shut down for the third day in a row, much to the delight of students around the region. Look for temperatures to moderate somewhat tomorrow afternoon under partly cloudy conditions. High temperatures should reach into the upper 30s and lower 40s across the area, with the exception of areas in northern Maryland, where temperatures will struggle to break the freezing mark.

A Clipper System for the weekend:
A rather vigorous clipper system, seen on regional satellite and radar, is currently rotating southeastward out of the Midwest, accompanied by snow showers as far south as the Oklahoma border.

Numerical models have been locked on to this latest wintry system for the past few days, and spread light snow showers into the northwestern suburbs late tomorrow afternoon and evening. Most of the time, clippers have a very difficult time spreading precipitation into the immediate metro area because of the moderately tall peaks of the Appalachian Mountains, which act as a sort of brick wall. This factor, coupled with the already moisture-starved system, usually spell "no snow" for the District.

However, it appears that this latest clipper will dive far enough south of the Capital to spread light snow showers into the metro region late tomorrow night. Dry air is abundant at the surface, but I think precipitation will gradually be able to work through this impediment through the night. Expect generally less than an inch of snowfall accumulation with this system.

Snowstorm Post-Mortem:
This week's snowstorm was, bluntly, one of the more difficult forecast that have faced area meteorologists this season. Marginal surface temperatures, disagreeing computer models, warming mid layers (which brought freezing rain and sleet into the forecast) all lead to a very challenging winter forecast.

Generally, I think my forecast worked out pretty well in most locations. Granted, I did not expect such significant ice accumulations across south central Maryland, where upwards of half an inch to three quarters of an inch of ice accrued on almost everything. The higher forecast snowfall amounts in northwestern MD did not verify (where I had envisioned 6-12" of snow, only about 6-8" accumulated in very isolated pockets).

All in all, however, my forecast verified pretty well in most areas, including the District, where 2-3 inches of snow, sleet, and freezing rain accumulated. My "all snow line," on the other hand, was completely off, as freezing rain and sleet made it all the way into southeastern New York and Northwestern PA.

The image at right is the total snowfall/ice map with data from the local National Weather Service office in Sterling, VA. The pinkish line represents where significant ice accumulations occurred. Areas within the pink area received anywhere from .5 to .75 inches of freezing rain.

Overall subjective grade: B-