As we say goodbye to the 7th warmest January on record at Reagan National Airport, there is reason to believe a rather significant cooldown towards mid-month is in store for the region. A massive amount of cold air has congealed north of 55 degrees North latitude, where temperature readings below -20 degrees are prominent.

Over the next few days, possibly by early next week, a chunk of that cold air looks to break off from the main "motherload" and slide eastward towards the Northeastern United States. By mid-late next week, this little cold air intrusion will have increased in scope and size; and by the end of the week, a massive ridge should have set up shop along the Western US--allowing air to flow northward as it hits the west coast, before dipping southward into Minnesota-Oklahoma-Arkansas, and Alabama. In essence, the jetstream that has consistently roared into the United States from the Pacific Ocean will no come onshore towards Alaska, gathering cold air is the 100+ mph winds slide into the Eastern US.

Furthermore, it appears many of the teleconnection indices (like the NAO, PNA, EPO, etc [probably all jargon to you]) are forecast to favor a fairly cold February. In February's that averaged out with a +PNA, and -EPO (current forecasts for this month are for a +PNA, and -EPO), the month was accompanied by temperatures from 2 to 4 degrees below average.

You probably won't really notice a difference in air temperatures until the 10th or 11th, but come mid month, I think we have a great shot at returning to winter.

Punxsutawney Phil's lost his owner:
The furry groundhog that's the oracle of winter forecasting recently lost his 15 year owner, Bill Deely. He said to job ate up too much energy and time. Deely will accompany Phil one last time, for the February 2nd weather forecast--he has a good chance at seeing his shadow.