Update!!!
Things are on track for what will likely end up being the largest snowfall this season around the immediate Metro area. Snow will break out across the region during the early mornign hours tomorrow. It may begin as a period of light sleet/freezing rain/or plain rain for a short time before the low levels cool. Afterwards, everything looks like snow north and west of I-95.


Winter Storm for the Snow-starved Capital:
We're still too far from the event for forecast snowfall maps, but there are a few scenarios that look at. We know a low will develop around the Gulf of Mexico tomorrow, strengthen rapidly as it moves up the coast, and depart the picture by Sunday afternoon. The intensity of this storm is still in question, but indications are it will be rather significant (sub 990mb).

The track of the low is also important factor in snowfall forecasts. A track too far off the coast would keep the precip all snow, but limit the intensity and overall amounts. A track closer to the coast would significantly increase the snowfall amounts, but mixing of freezing rain, snow, and plain rain would become an issue, primarily south and east of the District.

At this point, I think our chances of a snowfall greater than 4 inches in the immediate metro region are fairly high (maybe 50 percent) through Sunday afternoon. If things continue to pan out, the National weather Service will likely issue Winter Storm Watches tomorrow morning.