After the one of the largest snowstorm in Washington, D.C. history, we're finally returning to normalcy in the region. Over 330,000 customers lost power due to this storm, in part due to the high winds and hefty snow accumulations on powerlines.

Forecast Verification. Storm Underforecast and mind-boggling snowfall rates:
Yes, we all know the story: this storm was underforecast by most, if not all professional meteorologists and hobbyists around the region, and the entire Northeast for that matter. As snow fell Saturday evening and failed to accumulate on most surfaces, a fierce apprenhension developed amongst forecasters, and the naysayers began babbling about "busted forecasts."

By 10pm, most meteorologists had dropped their snowfall totals down to 3-6 or 4-8 inches after seeing the snow melt on contact. I decided to keep my 6-10 inch call (after upping the totals Saturday afternoon). But never did I anticipate the snowfall rates we experienced over-night Saturday. Rates of 1-2 inches per hour were common, with isolated 2-4 inch/hour bands setting up across the District and Baltimore regions.

Was I consistent with my forecast?
For the most part, yes. I only updated twice to basically shift the totals upwards, but my general thinking on the swath of heaviest snowfall remained the same. Grade here is an A.

Did I communicate the potential hazards of this storm?
I did not foresee the snowfall rates mention above, and failed to fully communicate this storms hazards. I did, however, mention the possibility of extreme snowfall rates overnight Saturday in the post below. Grade here is a B-.

Were the Snowfall Forecasts accurate?
I nailed the swaths of heaviest snowfall from DC north and west, with the highest amounts towards northeastern MD and New Jersey. Even though the totals were far too low, I am actually fairly pleased with the way this forecast turned out. Grade here is a B+.

So overall my grade for this storm is a low A--a very well forecast event by my standards. Granted, the forecast accumulations could have been a bit better, but we all know how mother nature likes to play tricks on us...

More snow in the forecast, or is this it?
While still up in the air, there seems to be an interesting event plaguing the computer models over President's Day weekend. This Friday and Saturday an intense low pressure system will drag a cold front through the region, accompanied by rain showers (maybe a thunderstorm or two).

By Sunday, everything will have cleared the region as colder air drains southward yet again. Between Sunday night and Tuesday of next week, models develop little "wavelets" of low pressure that skirt along the said cold frontal boundary stalled out around the southeast. Depending on surface and mid level temperatures, any precipitation from these lows could produce sizeable snow and/or ice accumulations. Stay tuned...