For the first time in nearly 2 weeks, temperatures topped out only 1-2 degrees above normal values (Average high in DC is 43 degrees). This "arctic outbreak" if you want to call it that, comes on the heels of one of the warmest January's on record, featuring high temperatures that would consistently top 60 degrees. Last week, a large lobe of below normal atmospheric heights split off from a stagnant Polar Vortex rotating around the Bering Strait, and spilled into the Central and Eastern United States.

In a previous post I stated:

I believe model forecast temperatures (GFSX, which runs off the GFS model runs at 00 and 12z to forecast surface parameters) are too high next week, in the mid 40s. The strength of this incoming trough would suggest high temperatures struggle to make it out of the 30s by midweek.

Since then, the said model has shown a downward trend in high temperatures through Friday of this week, which would match up nicely to other model forecasts revealing -13 to -15 degree Celcius (-55 to -65F) temperatures up around 5,000 feet. Forecast highs for Wednesday and Thursday have fallen into the upper 30s/and lower 40s.

Computer Models Playing with our emotions:
Late last night, two mid-range numerical models, the GEMGLB and ECMWF both developed a massive sub 980 millibar surface low near Cape Hatteras, NC around Sunday/Monday of next week.

Guess what the 12z runs showed. Nothing. Nadda. In fact, there was no sign of the Hatteras Low, which was instead replaced by a massive 1040mb Canadian High Pressure cell.

It seems like a broken record, and the tune has been played so many times this winter. This is, however, an interesting feature to should be watched carefully over the next few days as the weather pattern we've moved into would certainly support wintry weather at least for the next 2 weeks. (Accuweather seems to be toying with the possibilities...)