Local Forecast
Weather Wars: 7 Day Forecast Battle
Days Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Lee C. -- -- -- -- -- -- --
John Y. -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Temperature Verification
Days Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Temps -- -- -- -- -- -- --

Clear but Cool Close to the Work Week

By Lee Carlaw On Friday, January 27, 2006 At 10:01 AM
Forecast:
After a chilly start to the day, temperatures will quickly warm into the upper 40s/near 50 by mid-afternoon under clear conditions.

For Saturday, temperatures will once again soar into the upper 50s as high pressure propagates eastward, which will turn variable winds to the south. High cirrus clouds will overspread the region during the mid-morning hours, quickly followed by lowering stratus as a developing low skirts the region. Scattered showers should develop towards 3-5PM, although the day will not be a washout.

The chance for showers will remain through Sunday night, before decreasing through the day Monday (although the risk for a passing shower will remain). By Monday night, a surface low should begin developing along a stalled frontal boundary in the southeast, which will deliver a second punch of rain showers to the region overnight and through Tuesday. A few models however, develop this said low into a vigorous nor'easter Tuesday evening as it races northeastward towards the Grand Banks. (Could this mean snow for the region?) The Quantitive precipitation Forecast map to the right (NCEP/NOAA) shows nearly 1.5 inches of liquid-equivalent precip through Wednesday (how much of this, if any, is snow is a coin toss at this point).

The folks at LWX (the National Weather Service office for the Washington's/Baltimore area) also see this potential for a wintry concoction next week:


SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE MID ATLC COAST...INDICATED BY THE GFS/CANADIAN AND ENSEMBLES. THE LOCATION OF THE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FORECAST. 00Z GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT WOULD COMMENCE OVER EASTERN NC. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE COLD AIR TO COME RUSHING BACK SOUTHWARD AND GIVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN WINTER PRECIP. PREVIOUS RUN IS WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND WOULD KEEP PCPN IN THE FORM OF RAIN. FOR NOW HAVE FORTIFIED THE POPS A BIT FOR MON NIGHT/TUE AND HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WEATHER GRIDS. SNOW WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.



Needless to say, we'll be watching this system over the weekend, and that forecast confidence--at this point--is minimal at best.

for this post

 
Anonymous Nike Air Force One Says:

Great Article

 

Leave a Reply

Contact Us
wxdude1990 (at) yahoo.com jyarsh381 (at) hotmail.com

Donations


Useful NOAA Weather Links
Local Weather Service Office
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
Storm Prediction Center (Severe Weather)
National Hurricane Center

Watches, Warnings, Advisories
Warnings

Numerical Weather Models
NCEP Models (good selection)
PSU E-Wall
25 km WRF model (Hi-Res)
Earl Barker's Model Page
Ensemble MOS data (Washington, DC)

Radar and Satellite
Local Radar

PSU E-Wall Satellite
Local NWS radar
ABC Radar
FOX Radar
NBC Radar

Other Weather Blogs
Capitalweather.com
USA Today's The Weather Guys
The Weather Underground blog
Foot's Forecast
Weather Talk Radio
Eastern US Weather Forum
Phillyweather.net

Other Blogs
BayArea Kicks

Enter your e-mail to subscribe:


Personal Blogs - Blog Top Sites

Subscribe

Personal blogs
Top Blogs

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.