Currently:
Weather radar is showing some scattered snow flurries mainly north of the city associated with "orographically enhanced" snow showers affecting the Appalachian Mountain region at this time. Air parcels are being lifted up and over the mountains, and being dumped into the metro region.

With that said, snow flurries and scattered snow showers will be possible across the metro region east of the Blue Ridge through this afternoon. Winds are also gusting to 20-25 mph as a departing low pressure system deepens in the Northeast.

Let it Snow!
I have always been fascinated by winter storms, especially those famed Nor'Easters that ride up the Eastern Seaboard in the middle of Winter and dump crippling snows on the region.

What will transpire over the next 100 hours will likely be the first real "snowstorm" for the metro region. With that in mind let me say this: the weather pattern setting up over the next 3-5 days is incredibly complex, involving several lows developing along a stalled frontal boundary to our south.

General Synopsis:
Computer models are still having a difficult time pinning down this forecast, and my confidence is relatively low. Below are my thoughts on the following storms, organized into a "timeline" of sorts.

System Number 1 (Saturday evening-Sunday): By Sunday evening, a weak low pressure center will be forming around the Cumberland Plateau, and progress rapidly to the northeast towards the Mid Atlantic. By late Saturday night (probably towards dawn), snow showers, possibly mixed with sleet and rain will move into the immediate metro region.

As this first low departs on Sunday, most of the precip should turn over to rain as surface temperatures fly into the 40s. No overall accumulation is expected from this first system.

System Number 2 (Sunday -Tuesday): Early Monday morning, another low pressure system will be developing along and old frontal boundary in the southeast. Sometime around daybreak Monday, snow showers should break out once again across the area. Most of this event is expected to be snow at this point. High temperatures look like they will remain in the low to mid 30s, which should be cold enough to support accumulating snowfall IF SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN TO FALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY.

Snowfall will last through Monday night, and may become heavy at times. There are some indications warmer temps move in aloft overnight Monday, which would turn precip over to sleet. Precip should finally wrap up Tuesday afternoon as the low moves northeast and wraps northwesterly winds into the region.

Now IF this forecast I have outlined above pans out, total snowfall around the region might range between 2-8 inches (I know it's a large range, but there is a considerable amount of uncertainty in this forecast), mainly on grassy surfaces. Totals will be towards the lower end of this spectrum if snow showers move in later than I am thinking...maybe around noon on Monday. Precip would be falling into a considerably warmer airmass, which would likely inhibit much accumulation until Monday evening.

This might all be wishful thinking, but this forecast is supported by a few computer models. There are significant timing differences between the GFS, UKMET, and GGEM models, which is the biggest reason for my lower confidence. Stay with DCweather for updates over the weekend!