Currently, clouds and showers continue to expand northward in association with a developing coastal storm, (that will likely become a major Nor'easter tomorrow) with the remnants of former Tropical Storm Gamma. Light to moderate showers have already overtaken areas just south of the District, and will likely invade the immediate metro region in the next few hours.Outlook:
Today will feature thick overcast clouds, cooler temperatures, and a good chance for rain showers. By late this afternoon, rain will have overtaken the entire Mid Atlantic as a developing low pressure system intensifies along the Delmarva Coastline. High temperatures should remain in the lower 50s.
By Tuesday morning, the low should be located along the Northeast coast, and northwest winds will begin wrapping cooler air into the area. Winds Tuesday afternoon will be gusting to 30 kts (35-40mph) along the coast, and near 15-25 mph further inland. POPs (Probability of Precipitation) will decrease rapidly as the day progresses as the coastal low wraps up and moves into the Canadian Maritimes.
High temperatures will struggle to make it out of the 40s across the entire region.
Hydrology: While precipitation totals will likely range from 1-3 inches, there are low flooding concerns given the relatively dry ground, and high flash flood guidance amounts. Still, any heavy downpours have the potential to cause ponding of the water in low lying areas.
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We clear out Wednesday as a mini-ridge skirts the southern portions of our region. Temperatures Wednesday will likely be in the upper 30s in the northern 'burbs, and closer to 40 in the metro. By late Wednesday evening, a good-sized clipper system is expected to dive southeastward out of southern Canada, and overspread snow showers in the Appalachians.
Around midnight Thursday morning, rain/snow showers are forecast to overspread the metro region--and yes, temperatures at least Wednesday night look to favor some form of frozen precip, which is snow at this point. There is still uncertainty regarding the progression of an upper level trough that would swing through the area Wednesday afternoon...the faster it progresses east, the less cold air will be available in the Mid Atlantic.
Still, I have moderate confidence in this forecast that rain and snow showers will enter the region Wednesday night and during Thanksgiving Day. Temperatures Thursday afternoon would not be as favorable for snow aggregation in the lower levels--and precipitation would likely turn over to rain showers with what solar radiation gets through the thick cloud deck.
Through the rest of the month, temperatures will remain well below average as they hover in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
Above Image: Courtesy of Accuweather.com
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