Waking up this morning at the crack of dawn and walking out the door, I was hit with breezy conditions and temperatures in the lower 30s--quite a shock after enjoying early fall-like weather. Low temperatures this morning ranged anywhere from the lower 40s to our east, and lower 30s to the west. Oh yeah, it's 21 degrees in Johnstown, PA by the way...

Outlook:
I have a high amount of confidence in this forecast, at least in the short term. Winds will remain blustery out of the NW at 10-20 mph, possibly higher in gusts. High temperatures should top out in the mid to possibly the upper 40s.

Tonight, winds begin to calm somewhat under clear skies. This will allow temperatures to dip into the upper 20s across much of the metro region--probably the coldest air of the season-- especially north and west of the city.

The rest of the week will feature basically the same kind of weather--most sunny skies, and high temperatures struggling to make it out of the 40s.

Thoughts of a Snowy Thanksgiving...
Many Numerical Models are now hitching onto the idea of a negative NAO developing next week, forcing a strong trough to remain locked in position over the metro and Mid Atlantic region.

Not to be taken too literally, but several operational models have been showing *hints* of a possible coastal system developing around the Thanksgiving time. With a relatively deep trough in place, and temperatures forecast to remain in the lower 40s, there is a small potential for some flakes/rain showers next week. Granted, my confidence in the forecast is very limited given the timeframe and the finicky nature of these coastal lows.