Temperatures are currently hovering in the upper 40s across the DC metro region, with areas to the west like Johnston, PA coming in with a 31 degree reading at this hour. Brisk northwest winds 10-15 mph are making things feel even colder, so make sure to bundle up as you head outdoors today--high temperatures will struggle into the mid 50s by afternoon.
Outlook:
Temperatures will begin to moderate somewhat by tomorrow and Sunday as a surface high/upper level ridge take center stage over the eastern United States. By Sunday afternoon, lots of sunshine and warm air moving into the region from the southwest will combine to deliver us a spectacular close weekend with highs nearing 70 degrees.
After that, a remarkable change in the atmosphere begins to take place. Over the past weeks and months, cold air has slowly been gathering in northwestern Canada as several intense rotate, and hang around north of the 30th parallel. The only reason we haven't had a taste of this very cold air is due to a lack of mechanisms being utilized to shove the cold dome southeastward.
Recent model runs, like the GFS ensemble and ECMWF indicates at least a piece of this "cold dome" breaks away and moves southeast under a massive trough during next week. There is discrepancy regarding the strength of the trough, and hence, the amount of cold air that escapes into the continental United States, but I do expect high temperatures (after Wednesday) to fall significantly into the upper 40s/near 50.
Now what is remarkable about this developing weather pattern is ridges do not become apparent to disrupt the colder air mass. In previous weeks, cold air has enveloped the region for only short periods of time, like 1 or 2 days, before an upper level ridge moved into the area, bumping the temperatures back up to average norms. It appears the cold air will become entrenched on the region for an extended period of time, through the end of next week, and possibly into Thanksgiving...we will wait and see.
So at the end of this rant, the synoptics come down to this: warm air returns briefly to the Mid Atlantic through next Monday/Tuesday before a strong cold front races through the region sometime during the midweek, chopping temperatures by nearly 10 degrees into the upper 40s/near 50. Still, at least to me, cold air is pointless unless it's accompanied by snow...
Image above right courtesy of College of DuPage: ECMWF model Wednesday night, showing colder temperatures approaching the region with the passage of a strong coldfront.
Outlook:
Temperatures will begin to moderate somewhat by tomorrow and Sunday as a surface high/upper level ridge take center stage over the eastern United States. By Sunday afternoon, lots of sunshine and warm air moving into the region from the southwest will combine to deliver us a spectacular close weekend with highs nearing 70 degrees.
After that, a remarkable change in the atmosphere begins to take place. Over the past weeks and months, cold air has slowly been gathering in northwestern Canada as several intense rotate, and hang around north of the 30th parallel. The only reason we haven't had a taste of this very cold air is due to a lack of mechanisms being utilized to shove the cold dome southeastward.Recent model runs, like the GFS ensemble and ECMWF indicates at least a piece of this "cold dome" breaks away and moves southeast under a massive trough during next week. There is discrepancy regarding the strength of the trough, and hence, the amount of cold air that escapes into the continental United States, but I do expect high temperatures (after Wednesday) to fall significantly into the upper 40s/near 50.
Now what is remarkable about this developing weather pattern is ridges do not become apparent to disrupt the colder air mass. In previous weeks, cold air has enveloped the region for only short periods of time, like 1 or 2 days, before an upper level ridge moved into the area, bumping the temperatures back up to average norms. It appears the cold air will become entrenched on the region for an extended period of time, through the end of next week, and possibly into Thanksgiving...we will wait and see.
So at the end of this rant, the synoptics come down to this: warm air returns briefly to the Mid Atlantic through next Monday/Tuesday before a strong cold front races through the region sometime during the midweek, chopping temperatures by nearly 10 degrees into the upper 40s/near 50. Still, at least to me, cold air is pointless unless it's accompanied by snow...
Image above right courtesy of College of DuPage: ECMWF model Wednesday night, showing colder temperatures approaching the region with the passage of a strong coldfront.
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