Today, the 21st named storm of the season developed in the eastern Caribbean. Tropical Storm Alpha is located about 100 miles southeast of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, with maximum sustained winds near 40mph.
Visible Satellite image of Tropical Storm AlphaCourtesy of NRL
Computer model guidance is in great agreement with regards to Alpha's track even through 72 hours. A general northwestward track towards the southern part of the Dominican Republic within the next 12-18 hours as a moderately strong (50-60mph) tropical storm.
With Alpha, this is the single busiest Atlantic Hurricane Season on record with respect to tropical storms. The second busiest season was way back in 1933 with 21 named storms (they got through the W name). Without a doubt, this has been an absolutely incredible (and devastating) hurricane season.
Hurricane Wilma-'Devastaion':
Wilma is just about to emerge off the extreme northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula, and re-introduce itself into the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Wilma has not lost too much of its punch due to the fact that more than half of the storm remained over water for its duration over southeastern Mexico.
With unofficial reports of 5-6 feet of rain, and a long-duration high wind event (reports range from 100-145 mph) from the slow moving storm, I fear we will see some horrific pictures emerge from the Yucatan as things clear out.
As a benchmark, consider Hurricane Mitch as it wrecked whole communities and villages in Central America during 1998. Rainfall totals in the aforementioned regions approached 70 inches (5.8 feet) of rainfall in 24-48 hours. This caused catastrophic flooding of unimaginable proportions , destroying hundreds of thousands of homes and sweeping men, women, and children to their watery graves. This is the scene that will be unfolding in the near future as Wilma pulls away into the southern Gulf of Mexico.
Cancun took a fierce battering as the center of the Category 3 storm passed directly over Cozumel Island before landing near Playa de Carmen, south of Cancun.AP Photo; CNN
The Weather Research Forecasting Model:I am not completely sure about the accuracy of this computer model, but I stumbled across this today on EUSwx boards. This is a high-resolution computer model with somewhat of an outlier solution with regards to wind speed at landfall in western Florida. The said model brings Wilma onshore between Port Charlotte to Cape Coral very early Monday morning as a category 4/boarderline 5. Even though Sea surface temps are very conducive for strengthening, upper level winds will become increasingly unfavorable for significant development as Wilma emerges into the Gulf.
At this point, I think a category 4 storm impacting southwestern Florida is pretty much out of the question, but Mother Nature has been known to throw curve balls at forecasters every now and then. This is just something to keep our eyes on.
Weather breakdown over our region:
Scattered showers are visible on regional radars, and will continue through the night. Tomorrow, we will finally be able to the see the sun as low pressure lifts out of the region to the northeast.
for this post
Leave a Reply