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Clouds stick around a bit longer

By Lee Carlaw On Wednesday, October 12, 2005 At 4:58 PM
...Very complex weather set-up next several days...
First off, tonight looks primarily dry with maybe a 20 or 30% chance of running into some drizzle/light showers. Clouds will hang tough for through the night and pretty much through the end of the week as slow moving low pressure centers rotate northeast of the region.

Today's high temperature was just about 65 at Reagan National Airport, or 5 degrees below normal for this time of year. Again, this weather pattern we're in at the moment favors 'warmer' overnight temperatures and 'lower' daytime high temperatures due to cloud cover and persistent easterly to northeasterly winds.

Tomorrow's forecast is again a bit tricky with very little in the way of any triggering mechanisms to set off persistent rain showers. The best chances for precipitation look to be in the extreme northeastern part of Maryland/southeastern PA, where the best dynamics for rain are in place. Needless to say, the metro region has that continued chance of spotty drizzle. On Friday, a surface low about 100 miles off the coast of North Carolina should begin to take over, and will more than likely 'pull' in a lot of this moisture sitting around the east coast.

As the low deepens late Friday night/Saturday, all of the moisture in the Mid Atlantic races northeastward to join the developing low, likely setting up a significant rain event for the already rain-soaked northeast. Winds in the said region will increase to near gale force Saturday night as the low deepens significantly to near 980mb (that's about equivalent to a strong tropical storm, however this is a non-tropical system with a cold core versus a warm core system over the ocean).

Any rain chances will quickly fade away Saturday morning as the low gets organized and heads up to the northeast, leaving us with (dare I say it?) a very nice weekend. Saturday morning may start out a bit cloudy, but all in all things look good for Saturday and Sunday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, better known as NOAA, released its preliminary winter outlook earlier today, and the entire article can be found here. The temperature forecast for the east coast calls for near-normal, to slightly cooler than average temperatures from December 2004 to February 2005. Likewise, the precipitation forecast is just about normal for the winter season.

Tropical Talk:
Well, the Tropical Atlantic has finally calmed down, save a few intense areas of low pressure, one a non-tropical entity in the far northern reaches of the Atlantic, and another disorganized upper level low east of the United States. This system will eventually become the significant rain-maker for the Northeast later this week.


Satellite Image courtesy of NRL

No tropical development is anticipated in the next couple days.

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