The overall beat to the forecast remains the same...generally cloudy conditions, cool temperatures, and isolated drizzle. The GFS model continues to show an easterly wind piling moisture up against the DC metro region through Saturday night, when a strong surface low (appears to be the remnants of Sub Tropical Depression 22) finally pulls away into the Canadian Maritimes. Likewise, the NAM also has also trended into general agreement with this forecast, so confidence is relatively high that clouds will stick around through Saturday with spots of occasional drizzle.

The models have been having trouble depicting weather movement, primarily along the Eastern seaboard due to a lack of surface and upper air observations out in the Atlantic. Because of the aforementioned low pressure system spinning around in the western Atlantic, the models are forced to ingest relatively poor resolution surface and upper air maps. The lows position at 0 hours (initial time) has changed wildly over each run (00z, 6z, 12z, 18z) which as, in turn, caused significant variations to the forecasts.

Still, forecasts have not been off by a very large margin, the clouds have stayed socked in, and the area has experienced precipitation (albeit significantly less than originally forecast).