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Yet another Tropical Depression?

By Lee Carlaw On Monday, September 05, 2005 At 5:26 PM

At 5pm EDT today, tropical depression 15 developed about 400 miles southwest of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds were estimated to be near 30 mph. There seems to be a sliver of good news for south Florida residents and folks living along the northern Gulf Coast in that the circulation is expected to remain well east of any large landmass. (Note, this is not the same system closer to the Flordia coast discussed in last nights post.)

Visible Satellite showing TD-15 getting organized a couple hundred miles east of southern Florida

Latest Visible satellite imagery indicates the system is developing a good amount of convection right around the low level center of circulation with some very cold clous tops (near -75C) embedded around the low pressure.

The graphic below is the National Hurricane Center's 5-day outlook for the eventual track of Td-15. Notice the large bend the storm makes to the east in 3-4 days as a mid-level trough approaches from the west.

5-day Forecast track

There is significant spread in tropical models due to the very weak steering currents throughout the enitre atmosphere with upwards of a 500 mile difference between the Beta and Advection Models (BAM).

Another area of disturbed weather will have to be watched over the next few days just off the Florida Coast as it meanders very slowly westward. As discussed in last night's post, this system may emerge into the northern Gulf of Mexico during the middle of the week.