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Tropics ready to go

By Lee Carlaw On Monday, September 19, 2005 At 9:38 AM
Philippe developed into a hurricane early this morning with maximum sustained winds near 75 mph. The storm will continue to move northwest towards Bermuda over the next 5-7 days. It appears that Philippe will begin to move more to the north between 2 and 4 days out, basically skirting the 60 degree longitude line. Even with this track nearly 300 miles east of Bermuda, folks living in that area should keep a close eye on the movement of this system.

And on a more important note, Tropical Storm Rita is sitting in the southern Bahamas and looks to become a hurricane later tonight or tomorrow. Hurricane warnings are in effect for southern Florida and Grand Bahama Island, and hurricane watches extend along the western side of Cuba.



And on top of all this, there is overwhelming model consensus for the forecast track of Rita with most models agreeing on a landfall west of the Texas/Lousiana boarder, but east of Raymondville/Corpus Christi area of southeastern Texas.

One model that has caught my attention is the GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) model which is one of the most technologically advanced hurricane forecasting model available today. However, its performance this year has been less than stellar, with several "busted" forecasts. Even with its rather poor performance, I have to give it some merit in this forecast, as it remains clustered tightly around the other forecast models. In a little under 5 days, the GFDL brings Rita onshore near Iberia Perish, LA in the southwestern part of the state as a Category 2 hurricane.


GFDL Model forecast showing Rita making landfall in southern LA as a CAT 2 Hurricane

Given the proximity of this landfall to the recently devastated areas of Lousiana, residents living in this area and along the Gulf Coast from New Orleans westward into Texas should keep a very close eye on the progression of this storm.

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