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Rita Makes landfall-Weakening anticipated

By Lee Carlaw On Saturday, September 24, 2005 At 9:02 AM
Hurricane Rita came onshore just east of the Sabine Pass area and just east of the Texas/Louisiana boarder 3:30AM EDT. Maximums sustained winds were in the Category three range near 120mph. Even with Rita now fully on shore, winds will continue to batter eastern TX/LA for a while before she weakens to a tropical storm and eventually a depression due to interaction with land.

A significant rainfall threat will persists in Texas/Louisiana well into the weekend as Rita looses interaction with upper level steering currents. Rita's foreword movement should slow to around 5mph and move in an erratic pattern to the north, the northeast, across northeastern Texas, southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. With this slow movement, Rita will be able to drop copious amounts of rainfall along the ARKLATEX region--possibly approaching 1 to 2 feet in some locations.

It looks like Rita will eventually get absorbed into a cold front by Monday as it swings in from the northwest. Another Scenario is for Rita to make a loop around Louisiana and re-enter the Gulf of Mexico in about 5 days, as shown by the GFDL, and all three of the Beta and Advection (BAMS, BAMM, BAMD) models.

Isolated small tornadoes will remain a possibility east of the center of circulation in Louisiana pretty much through the day. Tornadoes associated with landfall hurricanes are usually weak (F0-F2) but can still cause significant damage. For this reason, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has issued a tornado watch for all of Louisiana and southern Alabama until 500PM CDT.


Outlook:
Mostly cloudy to overcast conditions will persist through the day and night across the region as high pressure in Ontario funnels low level moisture into the Mid Atlantic. Don't expect too much in the way of precipitation today, but some drizzle/showers will be possible.

Highs today will not be nearly as warm as yesterday, when Washington, Dulles International Airport reported a high of 93F, breaking the previous 35 year record of 92F. Expect temperatures to remain in the 70s today under the cloudy conditions.

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