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Less than perfect weekend weather

By Lee Carlaw On Saturday, September 24, 2005 At 3:33 PM
Visible satellite imagery shows low level clouds blanketing the Mid Atlantic from Pennsylvania, through Maryland and Delaware, and into Virginia. Expect pretty much the same kind of day tomorrow with a little more in the way of sunshine. Along with the clouds, some very light and widely scattered showers have popped up across MD.

On Monday, a cold front begins to approach the region from the west, turning our winds to the southwest and advecting slightly warmer temperatures into the area. By Monday night, some showers may begin breaking out across western Maryland, eventually spreading into the DC metro region overnight. The cold front wont really do anything to lower temperatures, but it will deliver some much needed rainfall. For the month of September, Washington is nearly 3" below normal with regards to rainfall, while BWI is around 2.5" below normal. I don't anticipate rainfall totals from the passage of the aforementioned cold front to amount to anything more than .5"

Wednesday and Wednesday night, high pressure moves east of the region to make way for a relatively powerful low pressure system diving southeastward out of Ontario. Thursday it's associated cold front rips through the Mid Atlantic ushering the first real "Autumn-like" temperatures. As the heights lowers in the atmosphere, a Canadian high pressure system glides in behind the strengthening low on Friday. Overnight lows may dip into the 50s in the metropolitan centers, and into the 40s out west.

As former Hurricane Rita degenerates into a tropical depression, she is expected to become a rain maker, spreading upwards of a foot of rain into the ARKLATEX region over the next 48 to 84 hours. Where she goes after that is a question. Some models absorb her into the cold front (mentioned above) on Tuesday. Still other models let her drift in the southern states for a few days--with at least 3 separate models driving Rita back into the Gulf of Mexico in 5 to 6 days.

And if Rita wasn't enough, the NHC is watching two more systems that have the potential to develop into tropical depression in the next couple of days. The first system is an area of low pressure associated with the remnants of Philippe. Even if this system redevelops, it will only be a concern to shipping interests.



The second area of concern is an area of disturbed weather near the Cape Verde Islands. Some slow development is possible over the next several days.

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