Weather Wars: 7 Day Forecast Battle
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Temperature Verification
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Fantastic weather heading into the weekend

By Lee Carlaw On Thursday, November 03, 2005 At 10:20 AM

Short term Outlook:
As we close out the first week in November, Expect fine weather to be the dominant player over the next several days as a large bubble of high pressure slides into the region. High temperatures today will likely eclipse the 70 degree mark in locations south and west of the District under sunny skies.

A relatively powerful cold front will make an approach on the Mid Atlantic over the weekend, but should remain far enough away from the District to yield a very pleasant Saturday afternoon. The upper level and surface high pressure will combine to yield higher-than normal atmospheric heights, and above normal temperatures over the weekend.

500mb Map showing high mid level heights Saturday morning, hence the above average temperatures

Map Courtesy Unisys weather

An upper level trough in the Pacific Northwest (our cold front this weekend) is wreaking havoc with the computer model guidance. GFS ensemble members are skewed with regards to the progression of this trough and surface cold front. A majority of the computer models agree that the trough swings through Sunday evening, but there are a few outliers.

At this point I believe we will be able to salvage most of Sunday, before clouds roll in during the late afternoon. Don't be surprised to see an isolated shower of two during the later afternoon Sunday, especially out west. A small 30-40% chance of showers will persist through Sunday night.

Monday:
As heights lower and winds shift around to the northwest on Monday, high temperatures respond by falling into the lower 60s-back to near normal levels for this time of year.