If conditions remain ripe up until landfall, it is possible Stan makes it to category 2 status (winds around 100mph). There is still time to watch this storms progression, but it is not expected to be a threat to the Gulf Coast region.
Another area of disturbed weather exists a few hundred miles east of Florida and is associated with an upper level low. Convection (thunderstorm activity) has become a bit more concentrated over the last few hours, and some models like the NAM develop this system into a relatively powerful low in 24-48 hours.
The NAM (North America Mesoscale-previously the ETA) developing a tropical low in the eastern Gulf of Mexico
A general movement to the northwest can expected over the next few days, and increasing showers/wind will enter the stage across Florida tomorrow. After the low traverses the southern Florida region, it enters the Gulf of Mexico (Yeah, that phrase is getting a bit old).
Where this system goes after this is up in the air--some models like the GFS forecast a weaker low to enter the Gulf and a stronger cold front to the north, which would in effect, pull this system northeastward into the southeastern States. The NAM on the other hand, develops a stronger low and weaker front, so the tropical system dances around the northern Gulf, dangerously close to the hurricane ravaged parts of Louisiana/Alabama. Again, this is a system to watch carefully over the coming days, and people along the Gulf Coast should keep a close eye on this disturbance
Another powerful cold front should sweep through the region later in the week accompanied by some breezy conditions and much cooler temperatures. Debris left over from the frontal passage will likely keep the sky a bit cloudy, and temperatures may struggle to make it into the 60s!
A general movement to the northwest can expected over the next few days, and increasing showers/wind will enter the stage across Florida tomorrow. After the low traverses the southern Florida region, it enters the Gulf of Mexico (Yeah, that phrase is getting a bit old).
Where this system goes after this is up in the air--some models like the GFS forecast a weaker low to enter the Gulf and a stronger cold front to the north, which would in effect, pull this system northeastward into the southeastern States. The NAM on the other hand, develops a stronger low and weaker front, so the tropical system dances around the northern Gulf, dangerously close to the hurricane ravaged parts of Louisiana/Alabama. Again, this is a system to watch carefully over the coming days, and people along the Gulf Coast should keep a close eye on this disturbance
Another powerful cold front should sweep through the region later in the week accompanied by some breezy conditions and much cooler temperatures. Debris left over from the frontal passage will likely keep the sky a bit cloudy, and temperatures may struggle to make it into the 60s!
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