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Evening Update

By Lee Carlaw On Saturday, October 01, 2005 At 6:19 PM
Tropical Depression 20 developed yesterday morning in the far northwestern portion of the Caribbean Sea. Today, the depression looks more like a smashed spider than a tropical disturbance with no real defined center of circulation and sporadic convection/cold cloud tops. There is general model consensus that TD-20 will make landfall near the Majahual area (don't worry-I didn't know where this was either) in the central part of the Yucatan Peninsula within the next 18-24 hours.

The NHC believed TD-20 will become Tropical Storm Stan before making landfall, but it will have to strengthen very soon as it is running out of its fuel (the very warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean) as it nears the east coast of the Yucatan.



Tropical Depression 20 may eventually meander into the extreme southwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche area in the next couple of days, but is not expected to have any significant effects of the lower 48. Areas in the far southern parts of Texas like Brownsville have the highest chance of seeing some extra cloud cover from the system, but that's about it.

Before TD-20 formed, TD-19 developed way out in the eastern Atlantic from a strong African wave of thunderstorms. We are now in the heart of hurricane season, and we often see large clusters of thunderstorms move off the western Atlantic coast near the Cape Verde islands and develop into tropical depressions-many of which become the most intense hurricanes in the Atlantic basin.

TD-19 is expected to drift harmlessly northwest, and eventually curve off the north and northeast with time over the extreme eastern Atlantic Ocean. There is at least a small chance TD-19 develops into either Stan or Tammy (depending of whether TD-20 decides to develop first or at all), but this system will quickly run out of good oceanic heat content for fuel as it approaches 25N.

And what happens when there are no more names to use? Because the list of storm names only goes through W (which is Wilma this year), there is a good possibility we go over the allotted storm names. If this happens, and it has never happened in the past mind you, the National Hurricane Center will use the Greek Alphabet for Tropical storm and hurricane Names. And just for reference, that is placed below:


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